High Value Targets-RB’s
Like any investment, maximizing value in your draft is all about price (in this case draft position) relative to performance. Drafting Matt Forte in the first round in 2009 caused sticker shock throughout the season. Draft him this year in Round 5 and you have a steal if he puts up 80% of his 2008 numbers.
Check out the following High Value Targets based on ADP and schedule.
RB's
Leon Washington, SEA ADP 145 RB 49
The new regime in Seattle and the performance of the Seahawks will be discussed early and often this season. Washington is coming off an injury shortened 2009 and joins a crowded backfield with Justin Forsett and Julius Jones. Expect Jones to be his usual pedestrian self especially now at age 29. Forsett will likely get the bulk of the carries but he is being drafted over 70 slots higher than Washington. Health is the big issue with Washington but his pre-season play has been encouraging. If he reverts to close to 2008 form, he will earn a split carry situation with Forsett and could produce 700-800 total yds 30-40 receptions and 4-6 TD’s. In addition to STL twice, SEA also gets OAK, KC, TB and DEN. Weeks 14-17 are SF, ATL, TB and STL. Monitor Washington’s health and draft him at this ADP with confidence. He will warrant the occasional Flex play and will deliver 9th RD Value at a 12th RD price as long as his leg holds up.
TB Cadillac Williams, TB ADP 90 RB 33
Caddy rode his way to a surprising 16 healthy games in 2009 and ended up around the 25th ranked RB. More importantly, depending on your format, he finished within spitting distance of 12 other guys that are getting drafted much higher this year including Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas and Cedric Benson. We all know the question marks with TB: the now injured Josh Freeman, shaky WR’s, opposing defenses being able to key on the running game, etc. We heard it all in 2009 as well. Coaches were talking up Derrick Ward but now he has a concussion. The only thing stopping Caddy from out earning this ADP will be another injury-certainly a possibility. Still, with CLE, STL, DET and SEA on the schedule, take your chances. TB’s Weeks 14-17: WASH, DET, SEA, NO. Invest.
Happy Drafting
Mac